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The Litigator
Johnnie Cochran would have been proud,
as would have William Jennings Bryan, or
maybe even Gerry Spence, as to the way
Lawyer Ron became the top handicap horse
in America with his smashing win in last
weekend’s Whitney at Saratoga.
The bettor can take away many things from
the victory but if you want to learn, and
this sport is about a constant work in
progress, you have to look back at how
the litigator and the rest of the field
was coming into the Whitney and try to
figure out why the race unfolded like it
did.
For now, let’s forget about his
final time. There is a question about if
he really went the 9 furlongs in 1: 46.64
which seems a bit out of whack but for
those that saw the race, he was visually
impressive. We’ll go over the splits
and the final clocking at a later date.
A total of 11 were in the gate for the
Whitney and just the betting alone told
everyone that the race was a puzzle and
super close. There was a rare 4-1 favorite
in Magna Graduate and 4 other horses were
valued between 5 and 6 to 1. Four more
were tabbed between 9 and 17-1, then two
longshots at 24 and 29-1.
The last-race Beyers in the event ranged
from 90 posted by Wanderin Boy, who finished
second at 29-1, to the 110 recorded by
Papi Chullo, who was recently bought by
Meadow Soprano’s pop. For those that
follow la familia, they were disappointed
as Papi ran like he was scared he was going
to get whacked and finished 9th.
Pace makes the race is an adage that has
been around for decades and it still holds
up but this race was run a little strangely.
There seemed to be a ton of zip in the
race which may have favored a closer to
save the day but what happened was that
runners that were 1st, 3rd and 5th early,
finished 2nd 1st and 3rd respectively.
That really could not have been truly
foreseen as the way the race shape projected
but lets look at what each of the trifecta
players had done in their previous starts.
Diamond Stripes, eventual third, has never
run a bad race, was coming off an okay
third and his connections were quietly
confident and he will live to fight another
day.
Place horse Wanderin Boy, 6th in this
race last year, may have bounced in his
prior start to the Whitney, but was basically
in for rabbit duties. His task was to set
a fast pace for stablemate Sun King to
fly down the center of the racetrack and
nail the speed late. King acted more like
a queen when the Boy held together like
a man.
The winner has now won 3 of 5 since entering
the Todd Pletcher barn and was beaten a
neck in one of the losses. He was totally
compromised in the previous race at Monmouth
Park when a lone speed horse was ridden
perfectly and held together by a neck.
If Ron had won that race, he would have
gotten no credit as the prohibitive chalk.
He closes like he wants to beat you and
with a record of 11 wins from 23 starts
that is just what he wants to do.
Once again tactical speed was the order
of the day and that is what bettors have
to draw from in this race. Lawyer Ron was
a rank sort early in his career but he
has learned to relax for Pletcher and that’s
good news for that potent barn and bad
news for trainers that have top caliber
older horses in the country.
The final thing players should take from
this race is the loss at the shore for
Ron. With the BC Classic to be staged there
in the fall, you can bet your bottom dollar
that a race, even a tough loss, over the
track could be the difference when the
real money is down.
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Posted on 7/31/2007 7:25:08 PM
Horse Betting - THE LITIGATOR
By Brian Mulligan
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