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National horse racing handicapper Michael
Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll
and yours with his column. He will feature
at least one Pick 3 or Pick 4 play from
a major track along with coverage of major
stakes races, longshots, and will keep
you up to date on what is happening on
the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's
report where Michael will keep you up to
date with track bias reports for the major
circuits.
We got knocked out of our late Pick 3
play in the first leg on Wednesday. Not
a great way to start the week. However,
we will come right back with a modest $18
ticket today.
Today's Featured Race of the Day:
SAR Race 8 OClm $100,000C (4:48 et)
#1 Shakespeare 8/5
#3 Art Master 6/5
#2 Gun Salute 15/1
#6 Rousing Victory 12/1
Analysis: #1 Shakespeare has only one
blemish on his record and that came in
the BC Turf. Six year old won his first
five career starts and earned a 105 Beyer
here in '05 off a 16 month layoff. Now
in Mclaughlin barn that is 19% winners
with horses coming back off a +180 day
layoff. Working quickly for his return
and catches a couple of accomplished horses
her in a tough spot for his return.
#3 Art Master won the G3 Poker 'Cap last
out. Comes back fairly quickly for his
third start of his current form cycle,
winning his last race on 7/14. Has the
fitness edge over our top pick but not
sure we are going to catch much value on
either one of the top two contenders inhere.
#2 Gun Salute won three graded stakes
in a row as a three year old including
the G1 Secretariat but his two starts this
year have not been very encouraging, beaten
a combined 31 lengths. Returns off the
bench for Mott barn that is 19% winners
with horses coming back off a 61-180 day
layoff. We might lean toward this guy if
he only had to beat one of our top two
in here, but beating them both looks like
a tall order.
Wager: #1 to win at 9/5 or better. Exacta
key of #1,#3 over #1,#2,#3.
Late Pick 3 Play: Races 7-9
The play: $1: 8,9,10 / 1,3 / 3,4,5 : $18
SAR Race 7 Clm $60,000 (4:15 et)
#8 Loconia, #9 Dynaglider, #10 Sabre Baby
#8 Loconia came up short in the stretch
last out in sixth place finish against
Alw-2 optional claimers after having to
steady heading into the far turn. Like
the stretch back out to a route here for
Motion barn that is 22% winners moving
runners form sprint to route. Two back
came up just a neck shy of beating Alw-2
foes going two turns on the lawn. He is
a half to a pair of turf winners including
turf stakes winner T.D. Vance ($420K).
Is 0 for 5 in turf races here so far at
the meeting but over the past five years
has hit at a 28% clip here on the lawn.
Worth a good look here if we see close
to the 10/1 ML. #9 Dynaglider made a good
late run and drew clear late to beat Alw-2
optional claimers last out going 1 1/4
miles. HAs won 5 of 14 on turf in his career
but is 0 for 4 here at the Spa. Comes in
here in sharpest form of his career and
Serpe off to a quick start here, winning
with 3 of first 6 starters at the meet.
SAR Race 8 OClm $100,000C (4:48 et)
#1 Shakespeare, #3 Art Master
(See analysis above)
SAR Race 9 OClm $50,000N2X (5:20 et)
#4 Metro Meteor, #5 Wave the Baton, #3
Drinkwater
#4 Metro Meteor came up short last out
as the chalk in third place finish as #8
Southern Prince went gate to wire. Gelding
won two back at today's condition and was
claimed out of his last start by Schwartz
barn that is showing a 2 for 8 mark first
off the claim. One of those was Pay Attention,
who won here on 7/26. Gelding has won 5
of 11 on turf and picked up a win against
open Alw-1 foes here last summer. #5 Wave
the Baton came up short last out in fifth
place finish against open $35K foes. It
was the gelding's first go off a six moth
layoff. Now returns off a two month break
and blinkers are added. Has not seen the
winners circle since winning at today's
condition back in '05. Gelding is a half
to turf stakes winner Seducer's Song ($240K).
Live Longshots:
These are price plays to watch today.
A small win-place wager is in order or
if your pockets are deep enough, use these
runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and
Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could
be the difference between a regular day
at the track and hitting the IRS window
with a signer.
SAR R2: #6 Malika 10/1
SAR R3: #4 Startastic 10/1
SAR R5: #8 Square Dancing 8/1
SAR R7: #8 Loconia 10/1
SAR R8: #2 Gun Salute 15/1
SAR R9: #5 Wave the Baton 8/1
SAR R9: #3 Drinkwater 15/1
Weekly Track Bias Report Update For July
25 to July 30
Saratoga:
7/25/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers,
3-5 paths, 0 gate to wire.
7/27/07: slight edge to speed, 3 path
in, 2 gate to wire.
Del Mar:
7/25/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers,
2-3 paths, 0 gate to wire.
7/28/07: slight edge to runners off rail,
3-5 paths best, 2 gate to wire.
Calder:
Track played fair all three days of the
week.
Good luck padding your bankroll today!
MikeD
Horse racing with BetUS Racebook Online
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Posted on 8/1/2007 7:36:44 PM
Horse Racing Betting - Thursday August 2
By Michael Dempsey
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